Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Bonds extend declines after Fed

Government debt prices extended declines Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it is prepared to buy long term Treasurys but did not offer the specific details that many investors were looking for.

The U.S. central bank kept its benchmark target rate in a range between 0% and 0.25%, citing credit conditions that are expected to "remain extremely tight." The Fed also said it is "prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities" if necessary.

But the market was expecting the Fed to make a stronger statement on its plans to buy long-term Treasurys, said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income Morgan Keegan.

Wednesday's selling "is mostly about the Fed not saying when they would start buying, if they were to start buying," Giddis said. The market was "counting on language that wasn't exactly there," he added.

Prices for longer-term bonds fell sharply as investors who had flocked to the 30-year note in anticipation of a more clear signal from the Fed rushed to unwind those positions, Giddis said.

Treasury prices came off their lows immediately after the announcement. But prices resumed their decline as investors focused on a major influx of supply expected to keep hitting the market.

Record-breaking auctions: The Treasury is scheduled to auction $135 billion worth of debt this week, on top of the $120 billion worth of debt brought to market last week.

Investors have been paying particular attention to the debt auctions recently as a way to measure demand.

On Thursday, the Treasury is scheduled to sell a record $30 billion worth of 5-year notes.

"Everybody is watching those new auctions to see whether past investor interest in buying those securities remains strong," said Michael Herbst, mutual fund analyst at Morningstar.

On Tuesday, the government auctioned a record $40 billion worth of 2-year notes. But prices rose because the bid-to-cover ratio for the auction was 2.69, meaning there was over $100 billion worth of bidders for $40 billion of debt. Even with the tremendous supply of debt, there is still healthy demand.

The government also auctioned $32 billion worth of 28-day bills Tuesday. On Monday, the government auctioned $29 billion worth of 13-week bills, $28 billion worth of 26-week bills, and $8 billion worth of 20-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).

Stimulus and supply: President Obama and House Democrats have come up with a stimulus package for the economy focused on job creation through rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. The $825 billion package, which includes $550 billion in spending and $275 billion in tax cuts, will be voted on by the House of Representatives later on Wednesday.

"There has been so much issuance of Treasurys lately to finance the bailout activity and indications seem to point to that there is more issuance to come," said Herbst. "How that impacts the purchasing of Treasurys is something that the market is looking for more clarity on."

The threat of such massive torrents of supply has already lifted yields significantly since December. At the end of 2008, the 30-year traded above 140 and its yield reached down toward 2.50%. The yield on the 30-year longbond was near 3.25% Wednesday.

"The supply dynamic is a massive issue that will have to be dealt with in 2009," said Brian Edmonds, head of interest rate trading at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Debt prices: The 10-year benchmark Treasury edged 2/32 lower to 109-24/32 and its yield rose to 2.6% from 2.53% late Tuesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 2-year note, meanwhile, was 6/32 lower at 99-28/32 and its yield rose to 0.91% from 0.81%.

The yield on the 3-month note jumped to 0.19% from 0.14% late Tuesday. The 3-month bill has been used as a gauge of confidence in the marketplace because investors tend to shuffle funds in and out of the bill as they assess risk in other places - the lower the yield, the more risk they see.

Meanwhile, the 30-year bond fell 2-4/32 to 121-15/32 and its yield rose to 3.34% from 3.23%.

Conventional home mortgage rates move in close connection to the yields on the long-term Treasury maturities. When Treasury prices hit record highs and yields sunk to record lows at the end of 2008, mortgage rates sunk. Lower mortgage rates help stimulate the housing sector. As government debt yields rally, so have mortgage rates.

"More drastic efforts will be necessary to stabilize the housing market and one key part of that is to bring mortgage rates down to encourage buyers to buy a house and enter into new mortgages," said Herbst.

Lending rates: The 3-month Libor rate edged slightly lower to 1.17% from 1.18% Tuesday, according to data on Bloomberg.com. The overnight Libor rate, meanwhile, held steady at 0.22%, even with Tuesday.

Libor, the London Interbank Offered Rate, is a daily average of rates that 16 different banks charge each other to lend money in London, and it is used to calculate adjustable-rate mortgages. More than $350 billion in assets are tied to Libor.

Two credit market gauges were mixed. The so-called "TED" spread narrowed to 0.98 percentage point from 1.04 percentage points Tuesday. The bigger the TED spread, the less willing investors are to take risks.

The rate surged as the credit crisis gripped the economy, but has since fallen off as central banks around the world have lowered interest rates and pumped the economy with liquidity.

Another market indicator, the Libor-OIS spread, was unchanged from Tuesday at 0.95 percentage point. The Libor-OIS spread measures how much cash is available for lending between banks, and is used for determining lending rates. The bigger the spread, the less cash is available for lending.

Wall Street cash bonuses fall 44%

Wall Street firms slashed cash bonuses for New York City employees by 44% in 2008, as they reeled from record losses in the securities industry, New York State's comptroller said in a report issued on Wednesday.

Bonuses fell to $18.4 billion from $32.9 billion in 2007, the largest dollar decline ever and the biggest percentage drop in more than 30 years, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said. The size of the bonus pool is the sixth-largest on record, he said.

Losses from traditional broker-dealer operations of New York Stock Exchange member firms topped $35 billion in 2008, more than triple the record set a year earlier, DiNapoli said.

Meanwhile, Wall Street shed 19,200 jobs, or 10.2%, in New York City over the last 14 months, ending the year with 168,600 workers.

The declines reflect the souring of the global economy and credit markets, as well as the disappearance of the traditional Wall Street investment banking model.

What were the five largest Wall Street banks no longer exist in the form they began 2008. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) became commercial banks, Bear Stearns Cos. was bought by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM, Fortune 500), Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt and Merrill Lynch & Co. was acquired by Bank of America Corp (BAC, Fortune 500).

JPMorgan and the ailing Citigroup Inc. (C, Fortune 500) are also based in New York.

Lower bonuses also cut into tax revenue, at a time when New York Gov. David Paterson and legislators are trying to slash a potential $15.4 billion budget deficit over 14 months. DiNapoli said tax revenue could fall by nearly $1 billion in New York state and $275 million in New York City from lower bonuses.

The comptroller said the industry's problems could worsen, despite an influx of hundreds of billions of dollars of taxpayer money from the federal Troubled Asset Relief Program.

"The industry is still continuing to write off toxic assets," DiNapoli said in a statement. "It's painfully obvious that 2009 will probably be another difficult year."

DiNapoli said the average Wall Street bonus fell 36.7% to $112,000 in 2008. The average decline was smaller than the drop in the overall bonus pool, he said, because the pool was shared among fewer workers as jobs were cut.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Oil falls $4 amid economic jitters

Oil prices fell more than $4 a barrel Tuesday as worries about a recovery in demand took center stage amid heightened concern that the global recession will continue to drag on.

That feeling was exacerbated by two dismal economic reports out of the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.

By the end of trading, U.S. crude for March delivery had fallen $4.15 to $41.58 a barrel. Falling demand due to the slowing economy has caused oil prices to plummet more than $100 a barrel from a record high of $147.27 a barrel last July.

A turnaround in demand won't occur "until we start seeing an economic expansion in the United States," said Rachel Ziemba, energy analyst with RGE Monitor in New York.

The Labor Department reported a large spike in unemployment in December, and another closely watched report from a private research firm showed consumer confidence sank to an all-time low in January.

Furthermore, stockpiles continue to build in the U.S. so even when demand returns, it may be some time before those get worked off.

Analysts expect the government to show a 3.4 million barrel increase in U.S. crude stocks when it releases its weekly statistics on Wednesday, according to a poll from research firm Platts.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on the $825 billion economic stimulus plan being debated by Congress. However, even if the stimulus plan boosts the economy, oil prices may not start to pick up until at least 2010, Ziemba said.

OPEC cuts: In order to cope with an oversupply of crude oil, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, an international trade group whose members produce about 40% of the world's oil, pledged last year to cut production in January by 2.2 million barrels a day.

However, as a group, OPEC is notorious for falling short on pledged production cuts.

"They're never really going to lower production to quota levels," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of oil advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. But he added that "they've done a better job of cutting than I thought they would."

Gas prices: By Tuesday, gasoline retailed at a national average of $1.84 a gallon, down 0.2 cents from the day before, according to a daily survey from motorist group AAA.

Wall Street on the upswing

Stocks gained Tuesday, rising for the third-straight session, as investors breathed a sigh of relief that some of the quarterly earnings were less terrible than had been expected.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 58 points, or 0.7%, closing higher for the second session in a row.

The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index added 9 points, or 1.1% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 15 points or 1%. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended higher for the third session in a row.

After the close, Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) reported quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates. Including charges, the company reported a loss. Shares gained 4% in extended-hours trading.

Earnings are due Wednesday morning from Dow component AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and financial company Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500). AT&T is expected to have earned 65 cents per share versus 71 cents a year ago. Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) is expected to report earnings of 33 cents per share, versus 41 cents a year ago.

Tuesday's stock gains occurred despite gloomy economic readings on home prices, employment and consumer confidence - and a slew of disappointing earnings.

"We've had some terrible numbers today, but I think the market is trying to look past the bad news and look toward the stimulus package being put forth by the Obama administration," said Robert Siewert, portfolio manager at investment firm Glenmede.

Also, investors seemed to welcome results that were not as weak as expected from American Express, Texas Instruments and others.

And Timothy Geithner's approval as Treasury secretary seemed to boost confidence that the Obama administration's $825 billion stimulus package could get passed, despite some Republican opposition.

"There's a little bit of cautious optimism in the market today, but people aren't going to make any big bets until they see what happens with the stimulus package and how Obama used the second half of the TARP money," said Paul Brigandi, vice president of trading at Direxion Funds.

"People are also looking to the FOMC meeting, not in terms of interest rates, since the Fed isn't going to do anything, but in terms of the statement and whether they announce any new initiatives," Brigandi said.

The Federal Reserve holds its two-day policy-setting meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is expected to keep short-term interest rates near zero, where it set them at its last meeting. However, as always, the statement that accompanies the decision will be closely scrutinized.

The negative news on the employment front continued on Tuesday as companies across the economic spectrum announced more than 10,000 job cuts.

On Monday all three major gauges managed to close higher, despite corporations announcing more than 71,000 job cuts. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also closed higher Friday, while the Dow closed off its lows.

The recent stock gains have followed a short, sharp retreat that saw the S&P 500 plunge 14% in just over two weeks.

That decline was partly due to a "policy vacuum" ahead of President Obama's inauguration, when it was too late for Bush to do anything and too soon for the new administration to make changes, said Richard Campagna, chief investment officer at 300 North Capital.

"What's driving the market now is that at least the administration has the ability to do something, to try to get the stimulus through," Campagna said.

Quarterly results: Dow component American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) reported lower sales and earnings late Monday that narrowly missed expectations. However, the so-called "whisper" number was much worse and investors seemed relieved that AmEx's results were not weaker. Shares gained 9.7%.

Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500) reported a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit after the close Monday and also said it was cutting 3,400 jobs. Shares gained 3.7% Tuesday.

A number of steel companies reported results as well. U.S. Steel (X, Fortune 500) reported higher fourth-quarter earnings and warned that first-quarter revenue would miss forecasts. But investors focused on the earnings and shares rose almost 7%.

Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and said most of its divisions should see profits in 2009, thanks partly to the proposed economic stimulus plan. Shares jumped 15%.

AK Steel (AKS, Fortune 500) reported a fourth-quarter loss and warned that first-quarter revenue would miss forecasts, sending shares 8% lower.

Netflix (NFLX) also reported higher fourth-quarter revenue and said it should surpass revenue expectations in the current quarter. Shares jumped 15.5%.

Dow component DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) reported a wider quarterly loss that was worse than expected and also cut its 2009 earnings forecast. Shares ended little changed.

Dow component Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings, but said that growth in its mobile phone business slowed and traditional land line customers continued to drop out. Verizon also warned that pension and other retirement costs would hurt earnings in 2009. Shares fell 3.3%.

Delta Air Lines (DAL, Fortune 500) reported a steeper quarterly loss due to costs associated with its merger with Northwest and bad fuel hedges. But the world's largest air carrier said that lower fuel costs and downsizing would enable it to earn profits in 2009. Shares tumbled 20%.

Other air carriers dropped with Delta, with the Amex Airline index falling almost 7%.

Among other movers, a number of big financial stocks rallied, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers two to one on volume of 1.17 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five on volume of 1.83 billion shares.

Economy: Home prices in 20 major cities plunged at a record annual pace in November, falling to levels not seen since 2004, according to a report released Tuesday.

A separate report showed that consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in January. The Conference Board, a research group, said its consumer index fell to 37.7 from a revised 38.6 in December, missing economists' forecasts. It was the lowest level on record since the group began tracking confidence in 1967.

A government report showed that unemployment spiked in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in December, as companies cut thousands of positions in the wake of the recession.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.54% from 2.63% Monday as investors pulled money out of the safe-haven investment. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Yields on the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasurys all hit record lows last month.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.18%, according to Bloomberg.com. Overnight Libor fell to 0.22% from 0.23% Monday. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

Other markets: In global trading, Asian markets were mixed and most European markets ended lower.

The dollar fell versus the euro and yen.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery fell $4.15 to settle at $41.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $9.30 to settle at $901.40 an ounce.

Gasoline prices fell two-tenths of a cent to a national average of $1.84 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Tuesday by motorist group AAA.

Oil reaches for $48

Oil prices rose as much as a dollar, reaching towards $48 a barrel on Tuesday, boosted partly by cold weather in top energy consumer the United States, plus signs OPEC oil supply cuts may have begun to underpin prices.

U.S. light, sweet crude for March delivery rose 72 cents to $46.45 barrel by 6:03 am ET, but had climbed as high as $47.49 a barrel.

U.S. crude has rebounded from below $33 a barrel in the past week.

"People are expecting OPEC to really be serious, and the weather's been cold in the northeast U.S., and here, so we're getting a bit of short-term demand," said Tony Nunan, risk management executive at Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Corp.

"We may have found a short-term bottom but nobody is confident that we're heading further up," he said.

Evidence suggests most of OPEC's members are implementing the group's biggest ever 2.2 million barrel per day (bpd) production cut agreed last month.

Oil has fallen more than $100 from a record peak above $147 a barrel in July last year, depressed by falls in demand as the credit crisis has pushed the global economy towards recession.

U.S. fuel inventories, for example, are building as demand shrinks.

U.S. crude oil stocks are expected to have risen a further 2.7 million barrels last week, the fifth straight week of gains. The figures are due out on Wednesday.

Colder weather is expected to help draw down distillate stocks by 800,000 barrels, according to a Reuters poll. Gasoline stocks are likely to have risen by 1.3 million barrels.

Temperatures in the densely populated U.S. northeast are forecast to be below normal this week.

Oil traders will get an early indication of Wednesday's U.S. government data with the release at 4:30 pm ET on Tuesday of inventory figures from the industry group the American Petroleum Institute, as the API shifts to a new, earlier release schedule.

Cyclone Dominic in Australia shut in more than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil production provided a small measure of support to prices. But output was expected to resume as soon as Wednesday as the storm passes.

Later on Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama goes to Capitol Hill to campaign for an $825 billion economic stimulus package to be put to a House vote within days.

Mostly upbeat start seen for stocks

U.S. stocks appeared set for a mostly higher open Tuesday, as investors looked past economic and earnings gloom, and eyed buying opportunities following the Senate's confirmation of the new Treasury secretary.

At 7:46 a.m. ET, Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 futures were higher, though Nasdaq 100 futures slipped from their earlier gains. But if the markets on Tuesday follow the lead of the futures, then it could result in a second straight day of gains.

News on the economic front has been dismal, but stocks still managed to gain on Monday. Stocks rose even as about 71,400 job cuts were announced.

Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics, said the approval of Tim Geithner as Treasury secretary on Monday helped to alleviate investor anxiety, despite the "really bad GDP report" that looms on Friday.

"These are the kind of tentative signs that you see," said Brusca. "The market has to stop falling and has to stabilize before it rises. I think this is a good place for people to start making bets."

The gross domestic product is expected to have declined by an annual rate of 5.4% in the fourth quarter, according to a consensus of economist expectations from Briefing.com.

Earnings: DuPont (DD, Fortune 500), a Delaware-based chemical company, reported a loss of $629 million, or 70 cents a share, for the fourth quarter. Without charges related to restructuring, the company reported a loss of 28 cents per share.

Corning (GLW, Fortune 500), a maker of fiber-optic and TV screen glass, said its fourth-quarter sales plunged 30% to $1.1 billion, and earnings plummeted 70% to 13 cents per share, excluding special items. The company said it will cut 13% of its work force, or 3,500 jobs.

Telecom operator Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) said fourth-quarter revenue rose more than 3% to $24.6 billion, and diluted earnings rose to 43 cents per share, up from 37 cents a year earlier.

Other stocks to watch include Texas Instruments (TXN, Fortune 500), which posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit after U.S. markets closed Monday. Shares of the chip maker rose 5% in after-hours trading.

Also late Monday, Dow component American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) reported lower quarterly earnings that missed expectations. Still, shares gained 3% in after-hours trading.

The economy: The Conference Board is due to release its January consumer confidence index.

The S&P/CaseShiller home index for November is also on tap and is expected to show steep declines.

The Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy setting meeting, with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon.

Retail: The outlook for retail sales doesn't appear to be improving. Retail industry sales are expected to decline 0.5% this year, the National Retail Federation said in its 2009 economic forecast released Tuesday.

World markets: Stocks in Japan soared, with the Nikkei climbing nearly 5%. But the positive sentiment didn't carry over to Europe, where major indexes were lower in morning trading.

Oil and money: Oil prices fell 73 cents a barrel to $45 in electronic trading. The dollar rose versus the euro and the yen, but fell versus the British pound.

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